I’ll admit that last Saturday I was one of those nerds who camped in front of his television set and watched most of the six-and-a-half hours of the NFL Draft. Call me crazy, but I’ve always found the draft process fascinating.

After all, next to college coaches, general managers have experienced job promotions or job losses based on the players they selected to fill their team rosters. It certainly takes good players to produce good teams, but knowing which players will translate collegiate success to the level where they get paid for performing is one of the toughest jobs of all.

Like any level of sports, good recreation football players don’t necessarily make good middle school football players and good middle school football players don’t necessarily duplicate that success at the high school level. We all know that college football squads are filled with high school All-Americans, so why should it be a surprise when so many college standouts are major busts in the professional ranks.

For every Peyton Manning that carves Hall of Fame credentials seemingly from the get go, there is a Ryan Leaf, selected right behind Manning in the 1998 NFL Draft who is a bust on the playing field as well as emotionally. In fact, many NFL experts argue that then San Diego Chargers general manager Bobby Bethard, who built three Super Bowl championship teams in Washington, is not enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame today primarily due from the fallout of selecting Leaf.

While it’s fun to see where Clemson, South Carolina, even Furman players, as the Paladins had one selected this year, will go, predicting future NFL success is an inexact science. As a Carolina Panthers fan, I was pleased that draft guru Mel Kiper Jr., though critical of the team giving up draft picks to move up, still graded the team’s overall draft with a B. However, I’ll be even more pleased if those players are playing in Charlotte in five years.

Just for fun, let’s see how recent first-round draft selections have fared:

Last year’s first overall pick JaMarcus Russell was a contract holdout and barely played. Although entering this year as the Oakland Raiders number one quarterback, Russell has been criticized for his weight problems and only time will tell whether he is the type of quarterback who can guide the Silver and Black over the next decade.

However, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson was all the Vikings brass could have asked for and more. Last season, Peterson rushed for 1,341 yards and scored 12 touchdowns and, barring injury, should be the cornerstone for a franchise that is on the rise.

In 2006, the Houston Texans were blasted for passing on Southern Cal running back Reggie Bush and taking defensive end Mario Williams of N.C. State. After two seasons, the move appears to be a wash — with the New Orleans Saints benefiting from their selection of Bush in Year One, with 1,307 total yards, and Williams enjoying a standout sophomore season that included 14 sacks.

The jury is still out on Arizona quarterback Matt Leinart, a Top 10 pick from Southern Cal, or Michael Huff, a defensive back for Oakland. Even Vince Young, of the Tennessee Titans, has yet to prove whether he will be as successful a passer as he is a scrambler. Of course, having a good supporting cast, something he still doesn’t have at this time, would greatly improve his chances.

Other first round disappointments, at least so far, are San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, former Minnesota wide receiver Troy Williamson, Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Matt Jones and Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White, Class of 2006; Oakland tackle Robert Gallery, Atlanta wide receiver Michael Jenkins, Former Detriot Lions running back Kevin Jones, Class of 2005; former Detroit wide receiver Charles Rogers, Chicago Bears quarterback Rex Grossman, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Kyle Boller, Class of 2003; former Houston Texans quarterback David Carr, Cleveland Browns running back William Green, Class of 2002; former Chicago Bears wide receiver David Terrell, former Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Koren Robinson, former Washington Redskins wide receiver Rod Gardner and former Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Freddie Mitchell, Class of 2001.

But, to be fair, there have been first-round successes as well. They include San Diego defensive back Antonio Cromartie, 2006; Cleveland wide receiver Braylon Edwards, San Diego linebacker Shawne Merriman, former Tennessee defensive back Pacman Jones, save for his legal problems and current suspension, Dallas defensive end DeMarcus Ware, Class of 2005; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, thanks to his late season surge that culminated in a Super Bowl title; St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson, Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, Class of 2004; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, former Buffalo Bills running back Willis McGahee, Pittsburgh defensive back Troy Polamalu, Class of 2003; Minnesota tackle Bryant McKinnie, Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers, at least until the past couple of years, San Diego defensive back Quentin Jammer, Philadelphia defensive back Lido Sheppard, Class of 2002; suspended Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick, at least until his dogfighting escapades caught up to him, San Diego running back LaDanian Tomlinson and Indianapolis wide receiver Reggie Wayne, Class of 2001.

Those are just the first rounders, as New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, a future Hall of Famer; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Whitten and Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook were all drafted in the third round or beyond in recent years.

The moral to the story is this: As fun as the NFL Draft is to hype and watch each year, the fact is that a number of the highly regarded prospects will go belly up on the field and a number of underrated prospects will surprise even the experts and enjoy solid and even outstanding careers. As important as talent is, the NFL graveyard is filled with players who never reached their true professional potential.

Instead, it is the heart and desire to succeed that will ultimately determine whether the hype players receive prior to stepping onto the professional gridiron matches the results. The fans will know soon enough and they won’t need Kiper or any of the other NFL draft experts to tell them.