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(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Workers walk from the site of Wednesday's scheduled presidential debate between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2008.
CLEMSON — Political scientist Dave Woodard believes Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama can go ahead and measure drapes for the Oval Office.
“The financial crisis played right into the hands of the Democrats, with the ghost of Herbert Hoover and the whole class argument about Republican ‘greed’ feeding the Democratic spin machine,” said Woodard, a Clemson University professor who has advised the GOP.
Going into tonight’s presidential debate, the third of the 2008 campaign, Republican candidate Sen. John McCain “has everything at stake, and not much hope of success,” Woodard said.
Some pundits have wondered aloud if McCain, who is trailing Obama in polls, would have been better off picking former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, known for his economic prowess, as his running mate instead of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. But Joe Stewart, chairman of Clemson’s political science department, said selecting Romney would have brought another crux.
“There’s a certain part of the Republican constituency that would have never supported Romney,” Stewart said. “The fact is the incumbent party is always in trouble when the economy goes bad. In this election, both parties are running against the incumbent. I can’t think of any other time that has happened. I’m not sure (McCain) can salvage this.”
Clemson political scientist Laura Olson said McCain’s suspension of his campaign as the Senate sculpted its bailout plan may have backfired.
“He’s come across as mercurial and out of touch. Obama, on the other hand, appeared to remain calmer through the crisis, and took the opportunity to clarify his own ideas about economic policy,” Olson said.
Obama aired a blitzkrieg of TVs ad in battleground states to bring home that policy. Olson believes an anticipated record-high voter turnout also bodes well for Democrats.
“It’s never over until it's over, but as I see it, the only things that could shake the race up enough for McCain to win at this point would be either an unanticipated event of great magnitude, such as a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, or some enormously scandalous disclosure about Obama himself,” Olson said.
While terrorist attacks are difficult to predict, if Republicans had knockout dirt on Obama, it would have probably surfaced by now, Olson said. Waiting too late to use such a bombshell would risk mitigating its effect.
Olson is curious to see if McCain will launch a negative assault during the debate.
“The data I’ve seen suggest that American voters aren't interested in negative attacks, but McCain might go negative anyway just to see if he can shake things up a bit,” she said. “McCain in a sense has little to lose because he's already so far behind. He would need to turn in the performance of his career just to stop the bleeding a bit, as I see it.”
When the debate is broadcast tonight at 9 p.m. from New York’s Hofstra University, Woodard will opt for re-runs. He believes he will not be alone in that choice.
“Research shows that most people watch the early debates, subsequent debates are not very memorable. That is especially the case when the Democrats have a huge lead, and are just trying not to blow it,” Woodard said.
If Obama does indeed score a run-away victory, Stewart said the outcome would likely impact up-for-grab Congressional seats. But, with the U.S. economy in the tank, whoever the next president is will be hard pressed to deliver immediate salvation. Since the John Kennedy era, 100 days has been a frequent increment to evaluate new presidents.
“You are not going to make a drastic economic change in that time,” Stewart said. “The public will determine how long a honeymoon period the next president is allowed to have. What you do is, in essence, sell hope. Make sure people remain optimistic about the future. It goes all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt’s speech, ‘We have nothing to fear except fear itself.’”
October 15, 2008
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