CLEMSON — Local experts from Clemson University, regardless of political affiliation, are backing up what recent polls are telling the general public — Barack Obama is in the driver’s seat in the upcoming election.

“I think Obama will win Tuesday,” Clemson political scientist and GOP consultant Dave Woodard said. “I don’t think it will be as big of a victory as maybe it looked a week or so ago.”

Woodard said he anticipates a popular vote differential 52-to-58 percent or 53-to-47 percent, similar to that of Bill Clinton’s 1992 general election victory over Republican incumbent George Bush Sr. The difference, however, is that this election isn’t nearly as hampered by a third party influence as 1992’s contest, when independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned votes away from Bush.

“There’s just not really a third party presence in this one,” Woodard said. “This is a clean one-on-one election, with two major parties going at each other, and I think it’s a little better of a referendum on the mood of the country.”

The current state of the economy, which has made headlines with financial system bailouts, precipitous drops in market confidence and a rise in unemployment, creates a perfect storm for Obama to ride into the Nov. 4 judgment day, Woodard said.

“This economy is a killer,” Woodard said. “When you read political science literature, it tells you people vote their economic preferences at election time, and they generally hold the party in power responsible. That hurts John McCain.”

Woodard said he expects the race to tighten as the election draws near, but doesn’t anticipate McCain to make up nearly enough ground to pull off an upset, saying McCain is having to play defense in traditional Republican strongholds like Florida, North Carolina and Virginia instead of staying on the attack for swing areas. Virginia is a prime example, where the growing suburbs near Washington D.C. swing increasingly towards Obama. Laura Olson, also a political science professor at Clemson, said McCain’s chances for victory are quickly diminishing.

“It’s looking more and more like Obama will win,” Olson said. “I can foresee a scenario that results in a landslide, but I can also see some things making it closer.”

The point, Woodard and Olson say, is that voters can be, well — finicky. So can polls.

“Will there be bad weather? Are people willing to stand in long lines?” Olson asked. “Some of it also depends on how undecided voters break.”

Woodard said despite all of the hype surrounding black and young voters in this election, he doesn’t anticipate those demographics being as much of a factor as the media is playing them up to be.

“Many models overestimate the black vote,” he said. “I think the turnout there will be enthusiastic, but not at the level some are expecting.”

The young vote from 18 to 24 is one that is traditionally overestimated.

“The classic story is 1972, when McGovern was running,” Woodard said. “You had the Vietnam War going on, and even then they didn’t vote in great numbers at all — and when they did they voted as much for Nixon as McGovern. I know I have plenty of students who will be on fall break, and they’ve got a lot of things they plan to do, and I don’t know that voting will be one of them.”

Olson, meanwhile said she did anticipate a record turnout, perhaps even ranging up to 70 percent of registered voters, an abnormally high rate of participation in the United States. She attributes the historical nature of the election to such high numbers.

“When it’s all said and done, we could see over 70 percent nationwide,” Olson said. “Usually we teach that presidential turnout numbers are around 50 percent. High turnout would be from 55 to 60 percent. Seventy percent would be remarkable.”