Who would have thought after Clemson’s debacle in College Park a month ago that the Tigers would be coming into the Florida State game as more than a touchdown favorite, and in control of their own ACC Championship destiny? That’s the position the Tigers find themselves in Saturday night, while the Gamecocks must shake off a pride-obliterating loss to Tennessee that saw the South Carolina get physically punished if they are going to prove that this is not the same old story. A loss to Arkansas here, and the wheels could come off.

South Carolina at Arkansas

Arkansas has an utterly horrible SEC record, but boasts an impressive offense led by towering 6-7 quarterback Ryan Mallett. South Carolina needs this win to avoid what would almost certainly become a three-game losing streak after Florida rolls into town a week from now.

When South Carolina has the ball

Stephen Garcia, Tori Gurley and Alshon Jeffery have to keep doing what they’re doing, because the Gamecocks have fallen victim this year to a familiar malady for them — they don’t have a serious scoring threat in the backfield. Arkansas is giving up more than 30 points a game against SEC competition this year, so this could provide a breakout opportunity for a South Carolina offense in need of some good things after a horrid performance last week.

When Arkansas has the ball

Mallett spread the ball around as effectively as anyone in the SEC, as 11 different players have touchdown receptions this year. The best of the bunch is Greg Childs, who should be a challenge for any of the Gamecocks’ secondary. That secondary will be depleted by the loss of safety Chris Culliver this week, while up front they’ll be without defensive end Cliff Matthews. This is not a good week to suffer injuries on defense, as Arkansas also boasts a big play threat in Michael Smith, who averages 6.4 yards per carry out of the backfield.

What will happen

South Carolina’s defense, minus two of its best players, will not be able to slow down Arkansas’s offense, while the Gamecocks’ offense, while impressive in stretches, will be unable to keep up to the Razorbacks’ pace. The Gamecocks continue to find the road in the SEC a lonely place.

Prediction

Arkansas 31

South Carolina 24

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Florida State at Clemson

Clemson is on the upswing right now, but its defense is going to be tested by Christian Ponder and a prolific Seminole offense. A Tiger win here puts Clemson one step closer to Tampa, but can the Tigers shake off the demons of ACC races past and step up to the opportunity?

When Florida State has the ball

Christian Ponder has thrown for more than 2,400 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, and is also a running threat. He’s smart, efficient, confident – all things a good quarterback should be. He’ll be throwing to a wide receiver corps boasting five players with 20 or more receptions. He’ll be facing, however, the most seasoned defense he’s faced all year, in an environment FSU hasn’t played in during the 2009 season. Look for Ponder to move the ball, but I’d be very surprised to see him slice and dice the Tigers’ defense the way he’s done most other secondaries all year long.

When Clemson has the ball

We’ve all heard about how bad the Seminole defense is. Among the worst in the ACC. Among the worst in the nation. Giving up more than 400 yards a game. But you’d better believe that this defense is fast and athletic enough to produce some crucial turnovers should Kyle Parker lose focus, or if a wide receiver coughs up a ball. FSU isn’t capable of stonewalling the Tiger offense, but the Tigers are completely capable of killing their chances of winning this game should they turn the ball over. The turnover battle will be what wins or loses this game. Look for C.J. Spiller to do his superman thing on a couple of occasions, but it will take a disciplined, concerted effort by Billy Napier’s offense in order to pull out a ‘W.’

What will happen

Clemson will jump out to a touchdown lead and hold onto it for most of the game. The defense will be fast and seasoned enough to make a key stop at home in front of a wild Death Valley crowd.

Prediction

Clemson 28

FSU 24